(Reuters) – When climate scientists looked at forecast maps of Pacific temperatures in November, they found a bright red sideways “V” for thousands of kilometers that heralded disaster.
Combined with the cooling of La Niña in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, warm waters in a V-shape from the east coast of Australia to the Philippines and across the ocean north of Hawaii suggest that half of the Horn of Africa is the world’s upcoming March to May. May’s rainy season may be canceled.
The scientific group, known as the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS Net), alerted UN, EU, and African agencies that the “unprecedented” drought could “lead to a dangerous and devastating humanitarian catastrophe”.
If the warning is confirmed, it could plunge the region into its worst drought on record. Millions will struggle to support themselves.
Such early warning systems are becoming increasingly important as climate change increasingly threatens food security. “Our job is to save lives and livelihoods,” said Gideon Galu, an agricultural meteorologist at FEWS Net in Kenya.
Heatwaves, droughts, and extreme rainfall will become more frequent in the coming decades as temperatures continue to rise, according to a report from the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
The world’s leading climate science agency, warned: “Increasingly extreme weather and climate events have left millions of people facing severe food insecurity and reduced water security,”.
In East Africa, the FEWS Net team said that since the end of 2016, only two biannual rainy seasons were considered “normal”, while the rest were wet to flood or dry to drought.
Aid groups began scrambling for funds and supplies. “It’s not enough to make predictions, we really need to act,” said Zinta Zommers, editor of the IPCC report.
In East Africa, the FEWS Net team said that since late 2016, only two biannual rainy seasons were considered “normal”, while the rest were wet to flood or dry to drought.
Aid groups began scrambling for funds and supplies after FEWS Net’s Dec. 1 alert for East Africa.
“It’s not enough to make predictions, we really need to act,” said Zinta Zommers, IPCC report editor who works at the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs.
FEWS Net was established in 1985 following a famine in Ethiopia. The United Nations has been running a similar program called GIEWS for decades, while other organizations, including the World Food Programme, have experts regularly analyzing the situation.
As climate science and satellite monitoring improve, these tools are increasingly being used as a first step in avoiding climate-related disasters.
The 2015 Paris Agreement on Climate Change listed such systems as a tool to minimize loss and damage from extreme weather events such as droughts, heatwaves, locust swarms, storm surges, and wildfires. The system can even predict when the wind will be strong enough to tear off the roof of a house.
FEWS Net is now working in 29 of the world’s most food-insecure countries, producing crisis risk maps 3 times a year.
Tracy O’Heir, director of humanitarian assistance for East Africa at USAID, said the network’s sole funder is the US government’s Agency for International Development (USAID), which uses its research to decide where and where How aid is distributed. Last year, the agency’s aid spending totaled $8 billion.
It provides early warning of events such as floods, which are becoming more common in South Sudan. In response to the current drought warning in East Africa, after three failed semi-annual rainy seasons, USAID plans to fund the search for local alternative water sources or the use of water trucks.
With livestock dying of thirst and crops failing, locals are struggling to feed themselves, receiving grants to buy groceries or dry food to be shipped to the area.
Meanwhile, the Red Cross has started using a “forecast-based funding” alert system that automatically disburses aid payments when certain forecast conditions are met.
“If we act beforehand rather than clean up afterwards, we can better use the same amount of humanitarian aid to help more people,” said Maarten van Alster, director of the Red Cross and Red Crescent Climate Centre.
In the Philippines — one of the most tropical storm-prone countries — automatic payments are due if typhoons are expected to destroy at least 10 percent of homes in at least three communities. Similar constellations exist in Peru, Vietnam, Bangladesh, Mozambique, and Mongolia.
“We need a lot — a lot of education for the people, a lot of resources,” Mbithi said. “Anywhere in the world, you can see climate change. You have to worry about that.”
With information from: https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/climate-dangers-rise-scientists-predict-disasters-before-they-happen-2022-03-01/
