Water shortage is a growing problem worldwide.
Overuse, population growth, and climate change have contributed to desperate conditions, and violent extremist organizations (VEOs) are turning scarce water into a weapon. This trend is most obvious in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), which is a region that is vital to the national security interests of the United States. For a long time, the Middle East and North Africa are prone to periodic droughts and discrete droughts. There is increasing evidence that climate change has exacerbated the frequency and severity of these events by contributing to a significant decline in winter precipitation. The impact of climate change affecting Syria may be a precursor to other countries in the region.
The link between climate change and instability in Syria was first proposed by our colleagues Francesco Femia and Caitlin Werrell in 2012 and was confirmed by climate scientist and senior researcher Colin P. Kelley of the Center for Climate and Security and their colleagues. Linked together in 2007. -2010 Eastern Mediterranean drought to long-term warming trend (found that due to climate change, the probability of drought has increased by 2-3 times.) Drought conditions and poorly designed and discriminatory water policies implemented by Assad The regime and Alawite elites also contributed to social instability when the Syrian civil war broke out. The regional climate model ALADIN confirms previous studies, which predict that the Middle East and North Africa will continue to be hot spots for global drought in the late 21st century.
It is expected that the decline in water security in the Middle East and North Africa is not only due to the impact of climate change, but also from other factors such as pollution, population growth, government corruption, and the unsustainable use of existing water sources.
In the next 20 to 30 years, as stated in the US National Intelligence Council’s July 2020 memorandum on how water affects economic and political stability, ongoing cross-border disputes over access to water resources will further aggravate water security in the region Threat. Countries of particular concern include Iraq, Iran, Jordan, Libya, Syria and Yemen. In the Middle East and North Africa and Africa, there is a correlation between VEO’s sphere of influence (groups that support and implement ideological violence) and dry land or areas with sparse vegetation.
with information from: https://www.hstoday.us/subject-matter-areas/counterterrorism/drought-is-leading-to-instability-and-water-weaponization-in-the-middle-east-and-north-africa/